MELD: assignment validation, organ prioritization and survival forecast in hepatic transplant patients (in Spanish)

Abstract

INTRODUCTION. The Model for end-stage liver desire score is used to determine the stage of liver disease in patients who are candidates for transplantation. Institutions that regulate transplantation use it as a tool for organ allocation. OBJECTIVE. To validate the score to predict survival in adult patients with cirrhosis in the liver transplant program and its usefulness in prioritizing grafts for patients on the waiting list. MATERIAL AND METHODS. Observational, descriptive study with a sample of 95 data from the Medical Records of the Transplant Technical Unit. Hepatic Transplant Program of Hospital de Especialidades Carlos Andrade Marín admitted to the waiting list. The predictive capacity of survival and validation for prioritization and allocation were calculated by obtaining information from the AS400 system database and analyzed in the International Business Machine Statistical Package for the Social sciences, version 23.0. RESULTS. The total survival of patients admitted to the program was 86.3% (82; 95). Of the 95 data obtained from the program, 62 reached the transplant, 13 did not reach it and 20 are active. Post-transplant survival was 72.5% (44; 62) at 12 months and 68.9% (42; 62) at 46-month follow-up. The area under the Roc curve for prioritization and allocation of organs was 0.59% and the severity of the disease according to the score was 0.53% in this study. CONCLUSIONS. This work did not find statistically significant differences between the groups.